Early Lung Cancer Detection Using Nucleotide Transition Probabilities in plasma cell-free DNA

Abstract

Lung cancer, the most lethal malignancy globally, urgently requires effective early detection methods. Current non-invasive approaches based on plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) fragmentomics are often constrained by limited sensitivity in early-stage patients due to low tumor DNA fraction. To overcome this, we introduce a novel computational feature, First-Order Transition Probability (FOTP), to decode nucleotide sequential dependencies within cfDNA fragments. Through systematic analysis of 1,036 participants and low-pass whole-genome sequencing, we demonstrate that the first 10 bp at the 5′ end harbor the most discriminative information for cancer detection. An SVM model leveraging FOTP achieved an AUC of 0.942, with 73.9% sensitivity for stage I and 81.8% for stage II lung cancer at 95% specificity, significantly outperforming existing fragmentomic features. Furthermore, the method generalized robustly across independent and multi-cancer validation sets, including HCC, CRC, and HNSCC, and exhibited potential for tissue-of-origin identification. These findings are supported by nucleotide frequency stability and entropy patterns beyond the initial 10 bp, reflecting underlying nuclease cleavage biases and chromatin features. This work establishes FOTP as a biologically interpretable and highly efficient feature for pan-cancer early detection, offering a scalable pathway toward population-wide screening programs.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

This work was supported by the Collaborative Innovation Major Project of Zhengzhou (Grant No. 20XTZX08017); Funding for Scientific Research and Innovation Team of The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University (ZYCXTD2023005); The key science and technology program in Henan Province (Grant No. 201400210400); Key scientific research project plan of colleges and universities in Henan Province (Grant No.22A416012); The National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 82002433, 82203028); The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [JCQY202108, ZJ22195010 and KYCYXT2022010]; and the Startup Foundation for Advanced Talents at Nanjing Agricultural University [050/804009].

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

The ethics committee of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University gave ethical approval for this work(Approval No. 2020-KY-0379-002).

I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.

Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

Yes

Data Availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author Cong Pian (Email: piancongnjau.edu.cn) upon reasonable request.

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