The worldwide rise in the prevalence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) producing Escherichia coli is a major public health concern. In Europe, ESBL carriage frequency increased then stabilized at about 6-8 %. Past antibiotic use and travel in countries with high ESBL frequency, notably South-East Asia, have repeatedly been identified as risk factors of ESBL carriage. Yet, the relative contributions of these mechanisms to the observed maintenance of a stable low frequency of ESBL in Europe remains unknown. Here, we used comprehensive data on the risk factors for carriage of ESBL-producing E. coli in the French community, alongside detailed microbiological characterization of both resistant and overall E. coli, to develop a biologically plausible mathematical model of ESBL resistance spread in France. The model also includes several mechanisms previously showed to favor coexistence such as population structure, variability in carriage duration and within-host dynamics. The level of resistance in the community implies resistant strains transmit 14% less than sensitive (95% credible interval 0.6-38%), and are cleared at a +23% larger rate (0.9-62%). ESBL resistance is predicted to be strongly associated with factors prolonging residence in the gut. Both the rate of antibiotic treatment and transmission strongly impact the frequency of ESBL in the community. In contrast, travel has little impact on ESBL frequency. Whether reducing treatment or transmission is best to reduce resistance depends on community-specific parameters. Our study opens perspectives for the quantitative study of resistance evolution and argues for future work to improve the characterization of the duration of carriage of commensal bacterial strains.

The authors have declared no competing interest.

This work was funded by the CNRS Momentum grant to FB and the ERC StG 949208 to FB.

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The study was approved by the Saint Germain en Laye Hospital Ethics Committee (10/10/2010-CPP06063). Written informed consent from parents or guardians was obtained.

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