Background Moderate- to high-intensity walking training (M-HIT) is an established intervention for improving walking capacity in chronic stroke. Musculoskeletal (MSK) adverse events commonly occur during M-HIT, yet tools to identify individuals at higher risk are limited. Baseline clinical characteristics may provide insight into susceptibility to training-related MSK adverse events during M-HIT. Thus, this study aimed to develop and internally validate a model for predicting MSK adverse events during a 12-week M-HIT program in chronic stroke using baseline clinical characteristics.

Methods Participants (n=100) from HIT-Stroke Trials 1 and 2 were included. Baseline clinical characteristics included measures of orthopedic history, pre-existing pain, motor function, recent exercise history, demographics and health characteristics, stroke chronicity, and psychological health. Logistic regression models evaluated all possible combinations of baseline characteristics with up to three predictors. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used for internal validation to mitigate overfitting. Predictive performance was quantified using the C-statistic, and the candidate model with the highest cross-validated C-statistic was selected as the final model.

Results MSK adverse events occurred in 32.0% of participants. The optimal three-variable model included prior orthopedic condition (Odds ratio [OR] 3.02 [95% CI 1.14-8.64]), Fugl-Meyer lower extremity motor score (OR 1.14 [95% CI 1.02-1.28]), and self-reported participation in regular walking exercise (OR 0.17 [95% CI 0.05-0.49]) at baseline. This model demonstrated moderate discrimination (cross-validated C-statistic = 0.74; apparent C-statistic = 0.78).

Conclusions Participants reporting at least one pre-existing lower extremity or lumbar spine orthopedic condition and those with better lower-extremity motor function exhibited greater odds of experiencing MSK adverse events during M-HIT, while participants reporting participation in regular walking exercise had lower odds. These findings suggest that baseline clinical characteristics may help identify individuals at elevated risk for MSK adverse events during M-HIT who may warrant closer monitoring or risk-reduction strategies. Future studies are needed for external validation.

The authors have declared no competing interest.

NCT03760016, NCT06268041

This research was supported by grant R01HD093694 from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD).

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The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

Institutional Review Board of University of Cincinnati gave ethical approval for this work.

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Data from HIT-Stroke Trial 1 are available in the NICHD Data and Specimen Hub (DASH): https://dash.nichd.nih.gov/study/424597 DOI: 10.57982/06fb-wh62. Data from HIT-Stroke Trial 2 will be available in DASH at the time of trial completion.

https://dash.nichd.nih.gov/study/424597