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Using Wastewater Surveillance to Improve Infectious Disease Control in Correctional Facilities and Congregate Living Settings: A Modeling Perspective
Wastewater surveillance is a valuable tool for monitoring infectious disease dynamics. However, its integration into outbr...
Combining an agent-based model with Gaussian process emulation to model the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norway
Agent-based models (ABMs) are powerful for simulating detailed infectious disease dynamics, but they are computationally i...
The epidemiology of pathogens with pandemic potential: A review of key parameters and clustering analysis
IntroductionIn the light of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries are trying to widen their pandemic planning from its trad...
Seroresponse to repeated infections with Salmonella enterica Typhi and Paratyphi A
Enteric fever, a systematic bacterial infection caused by Salmonella Typhi and Paratyphi, continues to impose a significan...
Fast and trustworthy nowcasting of dengue fever: A case study using attention-based probabilistic neural networks in São Paulo, Brazil
Volume 54, March 2026, 100880Author links open overlay panel, , , , , Highlights•NowcastPNN is a novel attention-based pro...
Insights from a Ventilation-Aware Pandemic and Outbreak Risk model (VAPOR)
Transmission of airborne pathogens in indoor spaces is strongly modulated by heterogeneity in ventilation. Understanding t...
Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling for infectious disease outbreak detection
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitt...
UnMuted: Defining SARS-CoV-2 lineages according to temporally consistent mutation clusters in wastewater samples
Volume 54, March 2026, 100876Author links open overlay panelHighlights•Wastewater samples over time allow for estimation o...
Evaluating mobility restrictions through spatiotemporal effective reproduction number analysis in a multi-patch model with complex mobility data
Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of infectious disease transmission is critical for effective epidemic prep...
Whose knowledge counts? Equity, epistemic justice, and reforming infectious disease research culture
Infectious disease epidemiology is shaped by engrained research cultures that privilege biomedical and quantitative knowle...
Machine learning-based short-term forecasting of COVID-19 hospital admissions using routine hospital patient data
Volume 54, March 2026, 100877Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , Highlights•Hospital electronic health records ha...
Social contact patterns derived from an epidemiological survey and GPS-based co-location data – A systematic comparison using parallel data collections during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany
The parametrisation of contact behaviour is crucial for infectious disease transmission models. Contact information derive...
Estimating influenza transmission parameters: Comparing two study designs, 2023–2024
Household studies play a critical role in estimating influenza transmission parameters, which are essential for real-time ...
A robust compartmental modeling framework for infectious disease monitoring and analysis via fractional differential equations
The numerical methods, including the fractional Runge–Kutta scheme (Section 2.4), model equations (Section 2.1–2.2), and p...
Predicting local COVID-19 emergences: A time-series classification approach and value of data from social media, search engines, and neighbouring regions
BackgroundEarly warning for known infectious disease threats use methods that focus on detection of outbreaks, often at la...
ML-ABC: Machine-learning assisted Approximate Bayesian Computation for efficient calibration of agent-based models for pandemic outbreak analysis
Volume 54, March 2026, 100881Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , Highlights•We propose a method for calibrating...
From wastewater to infection estimates: Incident COVID-19 infections during Omicron in the U.S.
Volume 54, March 2026, 100889Author links open overlay panel, , Highlights•States show significant and increasing underasc...
Changing contact patterns in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada in response to public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic
The provincial government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada implemented a contact tracing program as part of a containm...
Short term forecast of new daily pandemic hospitalizations: A time series model for a single hospital
Reliable hospital admission can aid contingency planning during pandemics. While some studies have developed models for pr...
Sequential federated analysis of early outbreak data applied to incubation period estimation
Early outbreak data analysis is critical for informing about their potential impact and interventions. However, data obtai...
Onset of infectiousness explains differences in transmissibility across Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages
Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) lineages show substantial variability in virulence, but the epidemiological cons...
Does spatial information improve forecasting of influenza-like illness?
Seasonal influenza forecasting is critical for public health and individual decision making. We investigate whether the in...
Analysis insights to support the use of wastewater and environmental surveillance data for infectious diseases and pandemic preparedness
Volume 51, June 2025, 100825Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , , , , Highlights•We highlight innovative method...
Machine learning approaches for real-time ZIP code and county-level estimation of state-wide infectious disease hospitalizations using local health system data
The lack of conventional methods of estimating real-time infectious disease burden in granular regions inhibits timely and...
Detection of surges of SARS-Cov-2 using nonparametric Hawkes models
Volume 51, June 2025, 100824Author links open overlay panel, , Highlights•The reproduction rate from Hawkes models accurat...
Optimizing influenza vaccine allocation by age using cost-effectiveness analysis: A comparison of 6720 vaccination program scenarios in children and adults in Belgium
BackgroundMany European countries prioritize groups for annual influenza vaccination based on risk of severe disease and d...
Estimating social contact rates for the COVID-19 pandemic using Google mobility and pre-pandemic contact surveys
During the COVID-19 pandemic, aggregated mobility data was frequently used to estimate changing social contact rates. By t...
Modeling the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within commercial swine barns: Quantifying the contribution of multiple transmission pathways
Volume 51, June 2025, 100828Author links open overlay panel, , , , , Highlights•A novel stochastic model simulated ASFV sp...
The effect of COVID-19 vaccination on change in contact and implications for transmission
BackgroundMonitoring human behavior as epidemic intelligence can critically complement traditional surveillance systems du...
Accounting for the geometry of the respiratory tract in viral infections
Volume 51, June 2025, 100829Author links open overlay panel, , Highlights•Modelling shows the influence of geometry on acu...
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